Global Economic Trends and the Future of Warfare

📖 The Scoop

Economic developments, trends, and disputes rarely are the sole cause of wars, but economic conditions can contribute to the risk of war and affect how wars are fought. Medium-term economic trends as of 2018 are raising the risk of war and lowering U.S. ability to win wars decisively, although only modestly. The global trading system is undergoing a period of turbulence, a major competitor-China-is expanding its economic and security reach, and the search for new resources presents a continued uncertainty. At the same time, U.S. and allied economic heft is declining relatively in the world, and with that, U.S. and allied defense industrial bases have consolidated, reducing industry resilience and the ability to replenish arms in times of stress. Furthermore, less economic heft in the world could lessen U.S. ability to attain leverage via sanctions. Despite these trends, the risk that economic conditions or events will spark war by 2030 is small. Nonetheless they add to a background of greater uncertainty of which defense planners need to take account.

Genre: Business & Economics / Development / Economic Development (fancy, right?)