Making Victory Count After Defeating ISIS

📖 The Scoop

This report investigates the current status of humanitarian and stabilization effortsin Iraq and particularly Mosul, the capital of Iraq's Ninewa Province. The study isbased on exhaustive data collection and review; field visits to Iraq (Erbil, Baghdad, theKhazer displacement camps outside Mosul, and the Qayarah and Hammam al-Alilmilitary bases); and over 50 in-depthinterviews with a range of seniorofficials fromthe Iraqi government, the United States, other officials from the Global CoalitiontoCounterISIS, the United Nations and other multilateral agencies, and implementingnongovernmental organizations. The research team reviewed the humanitarianresponse plan and the stabilization programs, as well as the track recordsof implementationthrough April 2017. Three case studies wereconducted on postcombat stabilizationefforts in Ramadi, Fallujah, and Tikrit. The researchers recognize that humanitarianand stabilization efforts are intrinsically multifaceted and mutually reinforcing, sowe have examined the primary areas of humanitarian activity and pillars of stabilizationto include immediate needs, security, infrastructure and services, and governanceand reconciliation. All of theseactivities in turn willaffect whetherand when civiliansare able to return home. The report focuses on identifying the key gaps in the current effort that willimpedefurther progressand ultimate success. The approach taken by the authors of this report isto identify urgent and primary gaps, which, if filled, willmake possiblethe next steps inrecovery. The report does not detail all of the activities needed to enable Iraqis to return tonormal lives. In reality, the degree of suffering and destruction throughout recent decadesnecessitates a long-termcommitment by Iraq's government and the international communityto repairing the country. The study team's analysisfound that the issues that willdetermine whetherMosul is successfully stabilized mirror, in large part, the issues in theother conflict-affectedareas. This is particularly true of the security, governance, and reconciliationissues identified. Moreover, the actions needed are in greatpart dependent onIraq's national government plans, decisions, and implementation, as well as support andfunding from the international community. Thus, many of the recommendations pertainnot only to Mosul but also to the overall stabilization effort in Iraq, and they require fullengagement by the national government and its supporters. The report concludes that without significantly increased effort by Iraqis, the UnitedStates and other Coalitionofficials, and the United Nations, another wave of violencecould engulf Iraq in a matterof months if stabilization activities are insufficiently robust. The prospect exists that military victory willdislodge the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria(ISIS), only for Iraq to fall into an extended period of violenceand suffering, if the underlyingcausesof discontent are not addressed and if many of Iraq's 3 million remaininginternally displaced persons (IDPs) remain unable to return home. Ongoing instabilityin Iraq could in turn precipitate further international refugee flows into other MiddleEastern countries and Europe. The United States, Iraq, and the international community have invested a greatdeal of effort in removing ISIS from the territories of Iraq and Syria. Theseefforts andresources willbe wasted if they fail to consolidate the gains earned through combatby securing the peace through adequate humanitarian and stabilization measures. Theresults achieved thus far demonstrate that success is possiblethrough a moderate butthoughtfully applied set of programs that leverage the willand know-howof local andinternational actors.

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