Assessing the Impact of U.S. Air Force National Security Space Launch Acquisition Decisions

📖 The Scoop

The U.S. military depends on space-based assets for strategic and tactical communications, for collection of imagery over contested areas, for warning of missile launches, and for precision navigation and timing. The ability to replenish those assets in a timely fashion may affect overall force readiness. The U.S. Space Force (USSF) is required to sustain at least two viable U.S.-based launch service providers for national security space (NSS) payloads. In 2019, a RAND team assessed the global heavy lift launch market to understand the impact of NSS acquisition decisions on that market. Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX) and United Launch Alliance (ULA) are the current NSS launch providers, having been selected for the Phase 2 launch contracts awarded between fiscal years 2020 and 2024. Although ULA is retiring its prior NSS-certified launch vehicles, its new vehicle has yet to complete NSS certification, leaving the USSF temporarily reliant on SpaceX as the only NSS-certified launch service provider. The RAND team was asked to update its assessment of the launch markets to better understand how the USSF might shape future acquisition strategies or prepare for operational risks introduced by past acquisition decisions. The authors examine historical and projected levels of supply and demand in the global and NSS heavy lift launch markets. They forecast demand over the next ten years (2024-2033) and explore how assumptions regarding future market dynamics might affect the USSF's ability to meet NSS demand and sustain at least two certified suppliers.

Genre: Political Science / Terrorism (fancy, right?)