Long-Range Ice Forecasting System (LRIFS) Applied for the Beaufort Sea

📖 The Scoop

Statistical models based on empirical orthogonal function analyses of up to 40 years of regional surface and upper air weather data have been installed operationally since 1991 in the Long Range Ice Forecasting System at Ice Centre Environment Canada. These models are employed to predict the abundance of sea ice and icebergs on the Canadian east coast up to six months prior to occurrence. This report describes work undertaken to investigate whether these same or similar methods can successfully be applied to predict Beaufort Sea ice abundance and timing in advance of the ice season. The work included generalization of the ice prediction system from its east coast base to a configuration for use anywhere in the northern hemisphere, as well as introduction of major enhancements to automate the identification of potentially viable meteorological predictors. Tests have also been added to eliminate predictors showing artificial skill. The new system has been applied to develop operational long range forecast equations for Beaufort Sea ice area, and results are presented for various lead times.

Genre: Science / Earth Sciences / Meteorology & Climatology (fancy, right?)