Summary of The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

📖 The Scoop

The Impact of the Highly Improbable.

Just because you haven’t seen something doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist, right? Well, Nassim Nicholas Taleb uses this exact logic to explain the Black Swans that happen in our society. A Black Swan is an improbable or highly unlikely event that has three principal characteristics. The first two are that it is unpredictable and it carries a massive impact. The third is the ability to construct an explanation after the fact to make it appear less random, and more predictable. Think of events like 9/11 or the invention of Google. These Black Swans, while unpredictable and impactful, could easily be explained in the moments following the event. Black Swans like these underlie almost everything about the world. But why can’t we acknowledge them until after they occur? Well, according to Taleb, humans are simply hardwired to focus on the details rather than see the big picture. We concentrate only on what we know and understand; therefore, we are unable to conceptualize the impossible. As you read, you’ll learn that we can learn a thing or two from turkeys, you'll see how a casino's greatest threat isn't high-rolling gamblers, and how focusing on what we don't know is critical for making informed decisions. 

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