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The Pros and Cons
Analyzes the costs and benefits of full dollarization, or the adoption by one country of another countryโs currency. Potential advantages include lo...
The History and Journals of Andrew Berg, 1869-1939
"Andrew Berg was miner, hunter, trapper, fisherman, warden, and Alaska's first licensed hunting guide. More than a biography, this is a well-documente...
This note raises the IMFโs profile on a number of issues related to inequality, unemployment, governance, etc. It builds on earlier empirical work t...
The integration of financial markets around the world over the past decade has posed new challenges for policymakers. The speed with which money can b...
We develop a model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of a scaling-up of aid and assess the implications of different policy responses. The model fe...
How Societies Can Choose Inclusive Growth
Inequality has drastically increased in many countries around the globe over the past three decades. The widening gap between the very rich and everyo...
The Washington Consensus Strikes Back?
There is good reason and much evidence to suggest that the real exchange rate matters for economic growth, but why? The "Washington Consensus" (WC) vi...
The Fund has recognized in recent years that one cannot separate issues of economic growth and stability on one hand and equality on the other. Indeed...
This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been us...
A Narrative Approach
Many central banks in low-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are modernising their monetary policy frameworks. Standard statistical procedures hav...
A Selective Survey
This survey of the recent literature asks: how important is trade policy for poverty reduction? We consider the effects of openness on poverty in two ...
There is an old joke that says that the exam questions in economics remain the same every year-only the answers change. Certainly, the debate about th...
Lessons from Recent Experience
This study analyzes key issues associated with large increases in aid, including absorptive capacity, Dutch disease, and inflation. The authors develo...
The World Bank and the IMF have adopted a debt sustainability framework (DSF) to evaluate the risk of debt distress in Low Income Countries (LICs). At...
We may be on the cusp of a โsecond industrial revolutionโ based on advances in artificial intelligence and robotics. We analyze the implications f...
The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime
We study the role of the exchange rate regime, reserve accumulation, and sterilization policies in the macroeconomics of aid surges. Absent sterilizat...
We reconsider the macroeconomic implications of public investment efficiency, defined as the ratio between the actual increment to public capital and ...
We study a wide range of hybrid inflation-targeting (IT) and managed exchange rate regimes, analyzing their implications for inflation, output and the...
Uncovering the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Low-Income Countries
VAR methods suggest that the monetary transmission mechanism may be weak and unreliable in low-income countries (LICs). But are structural VARs identi...
An Application to Low-Income Countries
Many low-income countries continue to describe their monetary policy framework in terms of targets on monetary aggregates. This contrasts with most mo...
Understanding the Interaction of Fiscal and Reserve Policy
We develop a tractable open-economy new-Keynesian model with two sectors to analyze the short-term effects of aid-financed fiscal expansions. We disti...
The Case of Zambia
We develop a DSGE model with a banking sector to analyze the impact of the financial crisis on Zambia and the role of the monetary policy response. We...
an Application to Kenya
We extend the framework in Andrle and others (2013) to incorporate an explicit role for money targets and target misses in the analysis of monetary po...
This paper presents a semi-structural macroeconomic model aimed at facilitating policy analysis and forecasting, primarily in countries with imperfect...
Analyzes the costs and benefits of full dollarization, or the adoption by one country of another country's currency. Potential advantages include lowe...
Natural resource revenues provide a valuable source to finance public investment in developing countries, which frequently face borrowing constraints ...
A How-To Guide
This paper provides a how-to guide to model-based forecasting and monetary policy analysis. It describes a simple structural model, along the lines of...
Overview
This paper motivates and describes an approach to forecasting and monetary policy analysis based on the use of a simple structural macroeconomic model...
Causes, Policy Responses, and Outcomes
This paper tells the story of the Asian financial crisis by addressing four questions: What were the causes of the crisis, how did the crisis unfold, ...
This paper investigates the medium- and long-term growth effects of the global financial crises on Low-Income Countries (LICs). Using several methodol...
We identify structural breaks in economic growth in 140 countries and use these to define "growth spells:" periods of high growth preceded by an upbre...
The Role of Early Warning Systems
Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crise...
Lessons from Scaling-Up Scenarios
The pace of progress toward achievement of the Millenium Development Goals (MDG) in many sub-Saharan African countries remains too slow to reach targe...
Lessons From theglobal Financial Crisis
This paper investigates the short-run effects of the 2007-09 global financial crisis on growth in (mainly non-fuel exporting) low-income countries (LI...
Explaining the Differences
What are the relative roles of macroeconomic variables, structural policies, and initial conditions in explaining the time path of output in transitio...
Putting together the Pieces
We develop a model to study the macroeconomic effects of public investment surges in low-income countries, making explicit: (i) the investment-growth ...
A Review of Recent Experience
This paper studies the question of how to achieve monetary policy credibility and price stability after a financial crisis. We draw stylized facts and...
Food and non-Food Inflation in Kenya
We develop a semi-structural new-Keynesian open-economy model, with separate food and non-food inflation dynamics, for forecasting and monetary policy...
Many studies predict massive job losses and real wage decline as a result of the ongoing widespread automation of production, a trend that may be furt...