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The Maidan Revolution in Ukraine created an opportunity for change and reforms in a system that had resisted them for 25 years. This report examines U...
Competing from Advantageous Ground
As the U.S. National Defense Strategy recognizes, the United States is currently locked in a great-power competition with Russia. This report seeks to...
Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts
Moscow's use of its military abroad in recent years has radically reshaped perceptions of Russia as an international actor. With the 2014 annexation o...
Whether, When, and with What Size Force to Intervene
In this report, the authors create a framework that can be used to rigorously consider the trade-offs involved in U.S. military intervention decisions...
Designed for the Use of Schools, and for Engineers in Professional Practice
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Lessons Learned and Risks for the Future
This report evaluates the potential for further escalation in the conflict in Ukraine, including the prospects for escalation to Russian nuclear use. ...
Designed for the Use of Schools and for Engineers in Professional Practice
Exploring Requirements for Effective Deterrence of Interstate Aggression
The challenge of deterring territorial aggression is taking on renewed importance, yet discussion of it has lagged in U.S. military and strategy circl...
Project Overview and Conclusions
This report is the overview in a series that seeks to answer questions about the future of warfare, including who might be the United States' adversar...
"There is an ongoing debate about the effects of U.S. military presence on conflict around the globe. In one view, U.S. military presence helps to det...
Identifying Trends, Characteristics, and Signposts
"In recent years, the frequency of U.S. military interventions in overseas areas, including not only those involving conventional war but also peaceke...
China has undertaken two broad types of military interventions in its post-1949 history. The authors assess which one of two patterns is likely to pre...
Assessing Future Trends in Armed Conflict and U.S. Military Interventions
This report identifies potential future demands for U.S. ground forces under different scenarios, including size, location, and capabilities, to infor...
The authors explore where, how, and how often U.S. adversaries (specifically, Russia, China, and Iran) have intervened militarily since 1946 and ident...
Scenarios, Findings, and Recommendations
RAND researchers generated four plausible near-term great power war scenarios and assessed how they could shape the postwar strategic environment....
Identifying U.S. Policy Levers
This report explores how U.S. allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific are likely to respond to military access requests in the event of a conflict wit...
Military Implications
The authors examine the military implications of intrastate proxy wars: civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support...
Exploring the Benefits and Costs of a Less-Hardline Approach
Using four historical case studies, the authors found that limited less-hardline approaches can lead to durable but narrow gains. However, issues left...
The Changing Global Environment and Its Implications for the U. S. Air Force
This volume of the Future of Warfare series examines trends in factors affecting the use of restraint in warfare that could affect U.S. national secur...
Regional Conflict Trends and U.S. Defense Planning
This report analyzes trends in violent conflict and their implications for defense planning. It presents models estimating levels of conflict to 2040 ...
Evaluating Options for Complicating Adversary Decisionmaking
The 2018 U.S. National Defense Strategy instructed the U.S. military to become more operationally unpredictable and suggested that doing so would help...
This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was ...
In this report, the authors assess when, where, why, and how Iran conducts military interventions and identify key signposts of Iranian military inter...
This report provides a framework of key factors to aid U.S. policymakers in assessing how China may react to shifting U.S. posture in the Indo-Pacific...
Emerging Opportunities for Engagement
This report examines the impact of renewed tension between NATO and Russia on key allies and partners in central and northeastern Europe to identify h...
This report assesses how China may react to U.S. military activities in the Indo-Pacific. It provides a framework of factors likely to determine Chine...
An Empirical Assessment of Historical Conflict Patterns and Future Conflict Projections
Based on conflict projections through 2040, this report concludes that despite the generally declining incidence of armed conflict, the Army must prep...
This report provides empirical evidence on the deterrent effects of U.S. overseas military forces. It also offers guidance about how the deterrent eff...
Using an original data set of 145 ground, air, and naval interventions from 1898 through 2016, this report identifies those factors that have made U.S...
"The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is in the process of implementing posture enhancements to increase capabilities on its eastern flank, a...
Statically indeterminate structures and secondary stresses