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Implementing Inflation-Forecast Targeting at the CNB
This paper describes the CNBโs experience implementing an inflation-forecast targeting (IFT) regime, and the building of a system for providing the ...
This working paper presents a comprehensive overview of the theoretical structure of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF), a multi-r...
Overview
This paper motivates and describes an approach to forecasting and monetary policy analysis based on the use of a simple structural macroeconomic model...
Adoption of inflation targeting by the Bank of Korea (BOK) in 1998 contributed to low and stable inflation. However, after the global financial crisis...
Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated w...
The effectiveness of recent fiscal stimulus packages significantly depends on the assumption of non-Ricardian savings behavior. We show that, under th...
A Robust Monetary Policy Framework for the United States
The Fed has taken several steps towards strengthening its monetary framework over the past several years. Those steps have supported the Fedโs effor...
Applying the Principle of Transparency
Many central banks in emerging and advanced economies have adopted an inflation-forecast targeting (IFT) approach to monetary policy, in order to succ...
Estimates of potential output are an important component of a structured forecasting and policy analysis system. Using information on capacity utiliza...
The estimates of potential output and the output gap presented in this paper are not official IMF estimates. The programs and potential output estimat...
A New International Macroeconomic Model
Over the past two years, the IMF staff has been developing a new multicountry macroeconomic model called the Global Economy Model (GEM). This paper ex...
Adding the Exchange Rate as a Tool to Combat Deflationary Risks in the Czech Republic
The paper first describes how the Czech National Bank (CNB) moved gradually from a fixed exchange rate regime to the frontiers of Inflation-Forecast T...
The paper assesses, using seven structural models used heavily by policymaking institutions, the effectiveness of temporary fiscal stimulus. Models ca...
We derive forecast confidence bands using a Global Projection Model covering the United States, the euro area, and Japan. In the model, the price of o...
A Prototype Model
This paper presents the theoretical structure of MAPMOD, a new IMF model designed to study vulnerabilities associated with excessive credit expansions...
This paper uses two of the IMFโs DSGE models to simulate the benefits of international fiscal and macroprudential policy coordination. The key argum...
The Core Dynamic and Steady State Model
This study describes the Mark III version of MULTIMOD, the IMF's multi region macroeconomic model. Mark III version of MULTIMOD differs from its prede...
This is the fourth chapter of a forthcoming monograph entitled "On Implementing Full-Fledged Inflation- Targeting Regimes: Saying What You Do and Doin...
Evidence and Policy Implications
This paper examines the evidence on asymmetries in the effects of activity on inflation. Data for the G-7 countries are found to strongly support the ...
This is the fifth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM)...
Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, thi...
The Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM) is a group of models developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis. A typical...
The 3-C Approach to Economic Policy
TBD...
This paper develops a new central bank transparency index for inflation-targeting central banks (CBT-IT index). It applies the CBT-IT index to the Cze...
The Simulation Properties of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model
The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is a multi-region, forward-looking, DSGE model developed by the Economic Modeling Division of t...
Using stochastic simulations and stability analysis, the paper compares how different monetary rules perform in a moderately nonlinear model with a ti...
For thirty years prominent voices have advocated a policy of starving the beast cutting taxes to force government spending cuts. This paper analyzes t...
This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil ex...
A How-To Guide
This paper provides a how-to guide to model-based forecasting and monetary policy analysis. It describes a simple structural model, along the lines of...
This paper outlines a simple approach for incorporating extraneous predictions into structural models. The method allows the forecaster to combine pre...
An Outline of the Analytical Framework
India formally adopted flexible inflation targeting (FIT) in June 2016 to place price stability, defined in terms of a target CPI inflation, as the pr...
Key Elements and Properties
This paper outlines the key features of the production version of the quarterly projection model (QPM), which is a forward-looking open-economy gap mo...
A model in which monetary policy pursues full-fledged inflation targeting adapts well to Ghana. Model features include: endogenous policy credibility;...
Time to Get Unconventional?
Japan has ambitious economic goals: 3 percent nominal growth; 2 percent inflation; and a primary budget surplus. Abenomics has employed the three arro...
The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is a multi-region DSGE model developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy ...
Adverse demographics and other structural weaknesses impinge on Koreaโs long-term fiscal outlook and potential growth. Moreover, inadequate social p...
Selected Applications of MAPMOD
This paper, together with a technical companion paper, presents MAPMOD, a new IMF model designed to study vulnerabilities associated with excessive cr...
Issues and Evidence
This paper presents empirical evidence supporting the proposition that there is a significant asymmetry in the U.S. output-inflation process, which im...
Beyond Approximate Ricardian Equivalence
Evans (1991) has demonstrated that Blanchardโs (1985) finite-horizon model obeys approximate Ricardian equivalence. We show that this result is dete...
A Case Study of Policy Dilemmas Caused by Low Inflation and the Nominal Interest Rate Floor
This paper examines the possible effects on Switzerland of asset preference shifts in favor of Swiss-franc-denominated assets that could result from E...