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Despite significant headwinds from population aging in most advanced economies (AEs), labor force participation rates show remarkably divergent trajec...
The linearity of the relationship between income inequality and economic development has been long questioned. While theory provides arguments for whi...
Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the influence of inf...
We use randomized controlled trials in the US, UK, and Brazil to examine the causal effect of public debt on household inflation expectations. We find...
A Heterogeneous Approach
The combination of stagnant growth and high levels of income inequality renewed the debate about whether a more even distribution of income can spur e...
This paper presents new evidence on the behavior of saving in the world, by extending previous empirical research in five dimensions. First, it is bas...
We show that firms rely on price changes observed along their supply chain to form expectations about aggregate inflation, and that these expectations...
We show that macroprudential regulation can considerably dampen the impact of global financial shocks on emerging markets. More specifically, a tighte...
Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing to data revisions and the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend i...
Adjusting for the Efficiency of Public Spending
It is generally acknowledged that the governmentโs output is difficult to define and its value is hard to measure. The practical solution, adopted b...
We analyze the impact of monetary policy on consumer spending using credit card data. Because of their high frequency, these data improve identificati...
This paper provides the first assessment of the contribution of idiosyncratic shocks to aggregate fluctuations in an emerging market using confidentia...
Performance and Policies
This paper analyzes saving patterns and determinants in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), including key policy variables and regimes. The review ...
High levels of economic policy uncertainty in various parts of the world revamped the de- bate about its impact on economic activity. With increasingl...
In this paper we propose a novel approach to obtain the predictive density of global GDP growth. It hinges upon a bottom-up probabilistic model that e...
An Application to Ecuador
We propose a stress testing framework of credit risk, which analyzes macro-financial linkages, generates consistent forecasts of macro-financial varia...
Many argue that improvements in monetary policy frameworks in emerging market economies over the past few decades, have made them more resilient to ex...
State-owned banks may help to soften the financing constraints of public sector entities and consequently become a factor that hampers fiscal discipli...
A well-functioning monetary transmission mechanism is critical for monetary policy. As the Dominican Republic recently adopted an inflation targeting ...
Despite conventional macroeconomic theory is based on the idea that demand shocks can only have temporary effects on unemployment, several European ec...
Advanced economies are in the midst of a major demographic transition, with the number of elderly rising precipitously relative to the working-age pop...
Lessons and Legacies of the Global Financial Crisis
Latin Americaโs bold fiscal policy reaction to the global financial crisis was hailed as a sign that the region had finally overcome its procyclical...
Composition and Technical Efficiency
Good practice suggests that budget allocations should reflect spending priorities and that spending should provide cost-effective delivery of public g...
Strengthening the Electricity Sector to Improve Efficiency and Support Economic Activity
Poor performance of the electricity sector remains a drag to economic efficiency and a bottleneck to economic activity in many low-income countries. T...
The Efficiency of Health Expenditure in Emerging and Developing Economies
Public health spending is low in emerging and developing economies relative to advanced economies and health outputs and outcomes need to be substanti...
Have Macroeconomic Policies Been Effective?
This paper identifies and documents the properties of output gap recessions and recoveries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan (MENAP) duri...
Following a period of disinflation during the 1990s and early 2000s, inflation in emerging markets has remained remarkably low and stable. Was this re...
Over the past decade, rising oil prices have translated into high levels of public investment in most MENA and CCA oil exporters. This has prompted qu...
The COVID-19 pandemic altered consumption patterns significantly in a short period of time. However, official inflation statistics take time to reflec...
Sound regional policies are essential for balanced and sustained economic growth. The interaction of federal and regional policies with cross-regional...
The measurement of the efficiency of public education expenditure using parametric and non-parametric methods has proven challenging. This paper seeks...
Explaining the Impact of the 2014-16 Oil Price Decline Across Exporters
The decline in oil prices in 2014-16 was one of the sharpest in history, and put to test the resilience of oil exporters. We examine the degree to whi...
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Latin America's bold fiscal policy reaction to the global financial crisis was hailed as a sign that the region had finally overcome its procyclical f...
It is generally acknowledged that a government's output is difficult to define and its value is hard to measure. The practical solution adopted by nat...
Can Macroprudential Regulation Help (more Than Capital Controls)?
Using high-frequency proxies for economic activity over a large sample of countries, we show that the economic crisis during the first seven months of...
Anchoring of inflation expectations is of paramount importance for central banksโ ability to deliver stable inflation and minimize price dispersion....
Lockdowns and voluntary social distancing led to significant reduction in peopleโs mobility. Yet, there is scant evidence on the heterogeneous effec...