Karl P. Mueller

Dangerous Thresholds

Managing Escalation in the 21st Century

Escalation is a natural tendency in any form of human competition, and today's security environment demands that the United States be prepared for a h...

Precision and Purpose

Airpower in the Libyan Civil War

A team of U.S. and international experts assesses the impact of various nations’ airpower efforts during the 2011 conflict in Libya, including NATO ...

Striking First

Preemptive and Preventive Attack in U.S. National Security Policy

RAND Project AIR FORCE studied the post-9/11 shift in U.S. defense policy emphasis toward preemptive and preventive attack, asking under what conditio...

Conventional Coercion Across the Spectrum of Operations

The Utility of U.S. Military Forces in the Emerging Security Environment

The raison d'Žtre for any military is to deter an adversary from acting inimically to a nation's interests or, if deterrence fails, to coerce him int...

Denying Flight

Strategic Options for Employing No-Fly Zones

In the past two decades, the U.S. Air Force has participated in three contingencies involving no-fly zones (NFZs) over Bosnia, Iraq, and Libya, and NF...

Airlift Capabilities for Future U.S. Counterinsurgency Operations

Current and probable future United States involvement in counterinsurgencies revives a long-standing debate about whether these missions call for addi...

Striking First

Preemptive and Preventive Attack in U.S. National Security Policy

Following the terrorist attacks against the United States on September 11, 2001, U.S. leaders recast the national security strategy to place greater e...

The Air War Against the Islamic State

The Role of Airpower in Operation Inherent Resolve

Airpower played a pivotal role in the U.S.-led fight against the Islamic State from 2014 to 2019 and contributed to the success of Operation Inherent ...

Evaluating Future Trends in Support of the Air Force Strategic Environment Assessment

Discussion and Results from a Structured Workshop

Every few years, the Air Force develops the Strategic Environment Assessment (AFSEA). The 2016 AFSEA is a 30-year look into the future for Air Force p...

Alternative Futures Following a Great Power War

Scenarios, Findings, and Recommendations

RAND researchers generated four plausible near-term great power war scenarios and assessed how they could shape the postwar strategic environment....

Innovation in the United States Air Force

Evidence from Six Cases

Air Force senior leaders have asked whether the service is sufficiently innovative today and what can be done to make it more innovative for the futur...

Managing Escalation While Competing Effectively in the Indo-Pacific

This report assesses how China may react to U.S. military activities in the Indo-Pacific. It provides a framework of factors likely to determine Chine...

Crisis Stability in Space

China and Other Challenges

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U.S. Strategic Interests in the Middle East and Implications for the Army

"Regional instability and conflict have often frustrated U.S. leaders' aspirations to pivot away from the burdens of military operations in the Middle...

Airpower Options for Syria

Assessing Objectives and Missions for Aerial Intervention

"This report offers an operationally informed overview of options for U.S. and allied military intervention in the Syrian civil war using airpower. It...

The Limits of Restraint

The Military Implications of a Restrained U.S. Grand Strategy in the Asia-Pacific

RAND researchers propose possible warfighting scenarios in the Asia-Pacific region that could guide defense planning if the United States adopted a gr...

The US Counterterrorism Strategy

A Planning Framework to Facilitate Timely Policy Adjustments by Lynn E. Davis Et Al

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