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Is There a Magic Threshold?
Using a novel empirical approach and an extensive dataset developed by the Fiscal Affairs Department of the IMF, we find no evidence of any particular...
We show that macroprudential regulation can considerably dampen the impact of global financial shocks on emerging markets. More specifically, a tighte...
This paper reviews the theoretical arguments in favor and against MF and presents an empirical assessment of the risks that it may pose for inflation....
International capital flows can create significant financial instability in emerging economies because of pecuniary externalities associated with exch...
We use randomized controlled trials in the US, UK, and Brazil to examine the causal effect of public debt on household inflation expectations. We find...
This SDN revisits the debate on bank resolution regimes, first by presenting a simple model of bank insolvency that transparently describes the trade-...
We provide a theory of the limits to monetary policy independence in open economies arising from the interaction between capital flows and domestic co...
We analyze the impact of monetary policy on consumer spending using credit card data. Because of their high frequency, these data improve identificati...
Fiscal Consolidation, Bail-ins or Official Transfers?
The paper presents a tractable model to understand how international financial institutions (IFIs) should deal with the sovereign debt crisis of a sys...
This paper provides the first assessment of the contribution of idiosyncratic shocks to aggregate fluctuations in an emerging market using confidentia...
How Banks and Sovereigns Came to Be Joined At the Hip
We use the rise and dispersion of sovereign spreads to tell the story of the emergence and escalation of financial tensions within the eurozone. This ...
Heightened uncertainty since the onset of the Great Recession has materially increased saving rates, contributing to lower consumption and GDP growth....
We analyze the profitability of FX swaps used by the central bank of Brazil to shed light on the rationale for FX intervention. We find that swaps are...
Financially closed economies insure themselves against current-account shocks using international reserves. We characterize the optimal management of ...
Whether in crypto assets or in CBDCs, design choices can make an important difference to the energy consumption of digital currencies. This paper esta...
We develop a simple model to examine the conditions under which delaying fiscal consolidation can affect the present value of GDP via the fiscal stanc...
We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with financial frictions on both financial intermediaries and goods-producing firms. In this...
Using high-frequency proxies for economic activity over a large sample of countries, we show that the economic crisis during the first seven months of...
Lockdowns and voluntary social distancing led to significant reduction in peopleโs mobility. Yet, there is scant evidence on the heterogeneous effec...