Mr.Chris Papageorgiou

Economic Diversification in LICs

Stylized Facts and Macroeconomic Implications

Limited diversification is an underlying characteristic of many low-income countries (LICs). Concentration in sectors with limited scope for increases...

Investing in Public Investment

An Index of Public Investment Efficiency

This paper introduces a new index that captures the institutional environment underpinning public investment management across four different stages: ...

On the Substitution of Private and Public Capital in Production

Most macroeconomic models assume that aggregate output is generated by a specification for the production function with total physical capital as a ke...

Rethinking Development Policy: Deindustrialization, Servicification and Structural Transformation

This paper takes a fresh look at the current theories of structural transformation and the role of private and public fundamentals in the process. It ...

Macroeconomic Outcomes in Disaster-Prone Countries

Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we study the channels through which natural disaster shocks affect macroeconomic outcomes and we...

Export Quality in Developing Countries

This paper develops new, far more extensive estimates of export quality, covering 178 countries and hundreds of products over 1962–2010. Quality upg...

Macroeconomic Research in Low-income Countries

Advances Made in Five Key Areas Through a DFID-IMF Collaboration

Despite strong economic growth since 2000, many low-income countries (LICs) still face numerous macroeconomic challenges, even prior to the COVID-19 p...

Retaliation Through Temporary Trade Barriers

Are Temporary Trade Barriers (TTBs) introduced for strategic reasons? To answer this question, we construct a novel sectoral measure of retaliation us...

Economic Gains From Gender Inclusion

New Mechanisms, New Evidence

While progress has been made in increasing female labor force participation (FLFP) in the last 20 years, large gaps remain. The latest Fund research s...

Market Reforms and Public Debt Dynamics in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

Many emerging market and developing economies face a difficult trade-off between economic support and fiscal sustainability. Market-oriented structura...

Efficiency-Adjusted Public Capital and Growth

This paper constructs an efficiency-adjusted public capital stock series and re-examines the public capital and growth relationship for 52 developing ...

Joining the Club? Procyclicality of Private Capital Inflows in Low Income Developing Countries

Using a newly developed dataset this paper examines the cyclicality of private capital inflows to low-income developing countries (LIDCs) over the per...

Will Working from Home Stick in Developing Economies?

In developing economies, a shift to working from home during the COVID-19 pandemic varies substantially. An increase in teleworking days per week rang...

Quality Upgrading and Export Performance in the Asian Growth Miracle

We explore the contribution of product-quality upgrading to the export performance of six fast-growing Asian economies: China, India, Indonesia, Malay...

Populism and Civil Society

Populists claim to be the only legitimate representative of the people. Does it mean that there is no space for civil society? The issue is important ...

Forecasts in Times of Crises

Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF’s Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA) database, we conduct the most c...

Preferences for Reforms: Endowments Vs. Beliefs

Are preferences for reforms driven by individuals’ own endowments or beliefs? To address this question, we conducted a cross-country survey on peopl...

The End of An Era? the Medium- and Long-Term Effects of the Global Crisison Growth in Low-Income Countries

This paper investigates the medium- and long-term growth effects of the global financial crises on Low-Income Countries (LICs). Using several methodol...

Financial Stress and Economic Activity: Evidence from a New Worldwide Index

This paper uses text analysis to construct a continuous financial stress index (FSI) for 110 countries over each quarter during the period 1967-2018. ...

Economic Diversification in Developing Countries

Lessons from Country Experiences with Broad-Based and Industrial Policies

This paper examines the significance and impact of broad-based and industrial policies on economic diversification in developing economies, supported ...

Building Resilience to Natural Disasters: An Application to Small Developing States

We present a dynamic small open economy model to explore the macroeconomic impact of natural disasters. In addition to permanent damages to public and...

Non-FDI Capital Inflows in Low-Income Developing Countries

Catching the Wave?

Low-income countries (LIDCs) are typically characterized by intermittent and very modest access to private external funding sources. Motivated by rece...

The U.S. Manufacturing Recovery

Uptick or Renaissance?

The notable rebound of U.S. manufacturing activity following the Great Recession has raised the question of whether the sector might be experiencing a...

IMF Research Perspectives

Spring/Summer 2018

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Will the AI Revolution Cause a Great Divergence?

This paper considers the implications for developing countries of a new wave of technological change that substitutes pervasively for labor. It makes ...