Mr.Daniel Leigh

Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers

This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced econ...

Okun's Law

Fit at 50?

This paper asks how well Okun’s Law fits short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in twenty advanced economies since 198...

The Distributional Effects of Fiscal Consolidation

This paper examines the distributional effects of fiscal consolidation. Using episodes of fiscal consolidation for a sample of 17 OECD countries over ...

An Updated Action-based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation

This paper presents a dataset of fiscal consolidation for 17 OECD economies during 1978-2020 and 14 economies in Latin America and the Caribbean durin...

Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence

This paper investigates the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in OECD economies. We examine the historical record, inclu...

A New Action-Based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation

This paper presents a new dataset of fiscal consolidation for 17 OECD economies during 1978-2009. We focus on discretionary changes in taxes and gover...

Unconventional Fiscal Policy in Times of High Inflation

The surge in energy prices in 2022 has been a defining factor behind the increase in euro area inflation. We assess the impact of “unconventional fi...

What’s the Damage? Medium-term Output Dynamics After Banking Crises

This paper investigates the medium-term behavior of output following banking crises, and its association with pre- and post-crisis conditions and poli...

Wage Moderation in Crises

Policy Considerations and Applications to the Euro Area

The paper studies the impacts of wage moderation in the euro area. Simulation results show that if a single euro area crisis-hit economy undertakes wa...

The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Latin America

We estimate the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in 14 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. We examine contemp...

A New Action-based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation in Latin America and the Caribbean

This paper presents a new database of fiscal consolidations for 14 Latin American and Caribbean economies during 1989-2016. We focus on discretionary ...

To Starve or Not to Starve the Beast?

For thirty years prominent voices have advocated a policy of starving the beast cutting taxes to force government spending cuts. This paper analyzes t...

Exchange Rates and Trade

A Disconnect?

We examine the stability and strength of the relationship between exchange rates and trade over time using three alternative approaches, mitigating th...

Okun's Law

Fit at Fifty?

This paper asks how well Okun's Law fits short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in twenty advanced economies since 1980....

Global Market Power and its Macroeconomic Implications

We estimate the evolution of markups of publicly traded firms in 74 economies from 1980¬-2016. In advanced economies, markups have increased by an av...

Hysteresis in Labor Markets? Evidence from Professional Long-Term Forecasts

We explore the long-term impact of economic booms on labor market outcomes using a novel approach based on revisions to professional forecasts over th...

Measuring U.S. Core Inflation: The Stress Test of COVID-19

Large price changes in industries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic have caused erratic fluctuations in the U.S. headline inflation rate. This paper c...

U.S. Investment Since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017

There is no consensus on how strongly the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) has stimulated U.S. private fixed investment. Some argue that the business tax ...

2022 Update of the External Balance Assessment Methodology

The assessment of external positions and exchange rates of member countries is a key mandate of the IMF. The External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodo...

Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era

This paper analyzes the dramatic rise in U.S. inflation since 2020, which we decompose into a rise in core inflation as measured by the weighted media...

Is the Cycle the Trend?

Evidence from the Views of International Forecasters

We revisit the conventional view that output fluctuates around a stable trend by analyzing professional long-term forecasts for 38 advanced and emergi...

Wage Moderation in Crises

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