Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard

Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications

We explore two issues triggered by the crisis. First, in most advanced countries, output remains far below the pre-recession trend, suggesting hystere...

Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers

This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced econ...

Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?

Many emerging market economies have relied on foreign exchange intervention (FXI) in response to gross capital inflows. In this paper, we study whethe...

Rethinking Macro Policy II

Getting Granular

This note explores how the economic thinking about macroeconomic management has evolved since the crisis began. It discusses developments in monetary ...

Labor Market Policies and IMF Advice in Advanced Economies during the Great Recession

This paper does two things. First, it articulates what are the main implications of theoretical and empirical research for design of labor market poli...

Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence

The workhorse open-economy macro model suggests that capital inflows are contractionary because they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. E...