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After several decades of increasing global economic integration, the world is facing the risk of policy-driven geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF). This n...
Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, thi...
We extend the Global Projection Model (GPM) to include a separate block for China. China plays an important role in shaping global economic outcomes, ...
The Global Projection Model with 6 Regions
This is the sixth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The G...
The Case of Poland and the Euro Area
This paper studies economic and financial spillovers from the euro area to Poland in a two-country semi-structural model. The model incorporates vario...
This paper presents estimates of potential output for all Central American economies. Our findings are that potential output growth has declined in re...
Abstract: Accelerating economic growth in Central America, Panama and the Dominican Republic (CAPDR) remains an elusive task. While the region perform...
Results from an Agnostic Estimation Procedure
This paper discusses interlinkages between Poland and the euro zone using a simple and agnostic econometric approach. Specifically, we estimate a tren...
This is the fifth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM)...