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All types of recessions, on average, not just those associated with financial and political crises (as in Cerra and Saxena, AER 2008), lead to permane...
Using panel data for a large number of countries, we find that economic contractions are not followed by offsetting fast recoveries. Trend output lost...
An Application to Sweden
This paper reviews a number of different methods that can be used to estimate potential output and the output gap. Measures of potential output and th...
Why Did Swedish Incomes Fall Behind?
Sweden represents an archetypal welfare state economy, with extensive government safety nets. Some scholars have attributed a decline in its per capit...
This paper investigates the extent to which output has recovered from the Asian crisis. A regime-switching approach that introduces two state variable...
The recent refugee surge has brought attention to the macro-critical policy issue of migration, including speculations that migration can be an unfavo...
What Are the Consequences of China’s WTO Entry for India’s Trade?
One of the most significant recent developments in world trade has been the entry of China into the World Trade Organization (WTO). This paper examine...
Prospects for Sustained Growth
The East African Community (EAC) has been among the fastest growing regions in sub-Saharan Africa in the past decade or so. Nonetheless, the recent gr...
A Case Study in the Asian Currency Crisis
This decade has witnessed currency crises in many parts of the world. The decade began with the ERM breakdown in 1992, followed by the Mexican crisis ...
We analyze the performance of kernel density methods applied to grouped data to estimate poverty (as applied in Sala-i-Martin, 2006, QJE). Using Monte...
What are the Consequences of China's WTO Entry for India's Trade?
Re-examining the Effects on Output
The impact of currency collapses (i.e. large nominal depreciations or devaluations) on real output remains unsettled in the empirical macroeconomic li...
This paper studies the behavior of China's exports from the mid-1980s through 2001. Extensive quarterly data on values and quantities of major export ...
Evidence from the World
We revisit the dramatic failure of monetary models in explaining exchange rate movements. Using the information content from 98 countries, we find str...
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Did real overvaluation contribute to the 1991 currency crisis in India? This paper seeks an answer by constructing the equilibrium real exchange rate,...
Capital flight may undermine economic growth and the effectiveness of debt relief and foreign aid. This paper is the first attempt to test whether uns...