Timothy R. Gulden

Assessing Risk to the National Critical Functions as a Result of Climate Change

National Critical Functions (NCFs) are government and private-sector functions so vital that their disruption would debilitate security, the economy, ...

Integrating Social Media into Information Systems

Requirements, Gaps, and Potential Solutions

This report examines the technical challenges associated with incorporating bulk, automated analysis of social media information into procedures for v...

Modeling Rapidly Composable, Heterogeneous, and Fractionated Forces

Findings on Mosaic Warfare from an Agent-Based Model

Mosaic warfare is named for the idea of creating a complex image from small pieces. This report studies Mosaic warfare and explores complexity of plat...

Main Command Post-Operational Detachments (MCP-ODs) and Division Headquarters Readiness

Researchers identify the effects of Focus Area Review Group II headquarters design and its new unit type--the Main Command Post-Operational Detachment...

Leveraging Complexity in Great-Power Competition and Warfare

An Initial Exploration of How Complex Adaptive Systems Thinking Can Frame Opportunities and Challenges

This report is the first in a two-part series that examines how complex adaptive systems thinking can be applied to great-power competition and warfar...

Cost-benefit Analysis of Proposed California Oil and Gas Refinery Regulations

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Strategies to Mitigate the Risk to the National Critical Functions Generated by Climate Change

This report examines climate adaptation strategies for National Critical Functions at risk of disruption from climate change, focusing on strategies t...

Priority Challenges for Social and Behavioral Research and Its Modeling

Social-behavioral modeling is famously hard. This report examines shortcomings and obstacles--some inherent to complex adaptive systems broadly and so...

Leveraging Complexity in Great-Power Competition and Warfare

Technical Details for a Complex Adaptive Systems Lens

This is a technical report that supports a companion report, Leveraging Complexity in Great-Power Competition and Warfare: Volume I, An Initial Explor...