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All types of recessions, on average, not just those associated with financial and political crises (as in Cerra and Saxena, AER 2008), lead to permane...
Using panel data for a large number of countries, we find that economic contractions are not followed by offsetting fast recoveries. Trend output lost...
The Myth of Economic Recovery
An Application to Sweden
This paper reviews a number of different methods that can be used to estimate potential output and the output gap. Measures of potential output and th...
This paper investigates the extent to which output has recovered from the Asian crisis. A regime-switching approach that introduces two state variable...
Why Did Swedish Incomes Fall Behind?
Sweden represents an archetypal welfare state economy, with extensive government safety nets. Some scholars have attributed a decline in its per capit...
Selected Issues Paper
This Selected Issues paper addresses key areas that would contribute to maintaining macroeconomic stability and inclusive growth. Strong economic grow...
Selected Issues
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the European Monetary Union and the monetary policy framework in Iceland. It concludes that in terms of an excha...
Arrangement Under the Flexible Credit Line and Cancellation of the Current Arrangement
This paper discusses Colombiaโs Arrangement Under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) and Cancellation of the Current Arrangement. In the baseline scenar...
This Selected Issues paper examines the role of the State Petroleum Fund in Norwegian economic policy, as a means to promote a sustainable long-term f...
Is there a tradeoff between raising growth and reducing inequality and poverty? This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the com...
Recent Economic Developments
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What Are the Consequences of Chinaโs WTO Entry for Indiaโs Trade?
One of the most significant recent developments in world trade has been the entry of China into the World Trade Organization (WTO). This paper examine...
A Model of Venezuela
This paper presents a stylized general equilibrium model of the Venezuelan economy. The model explains how the recent sharp fall in oil revenue combin...
Changing Price Sensitivies and the Reform Process
Over the past 20 years, the Chinese authorities have undertaken wide-ranging reforms of their exchange and trade systems that have steadily reduced th...
A Case Study in the Asian Currency Crisis
This decade has witnessed currency crises in many parts of the world. The decade began with the ERM breakdown in 1992, followed by the Mexican crisis ...
This paper investigates the determinants of sustained accelerations in goods and services exports. Strong predictors of export takeoffs include domest...
Infrastructure Determinants and Trends in Latin America and the Caribbean
Inadequate infrastructure has been widely viewed as a principal barrier to growth and development in Latin America and the Caribbean. This paper provi...
A dynamic dependent-economy model is developed to investigate the role of the real exchange rate in determining the effects of foreign aid. If capital...
We analyze the performance of kernel density methods applied to grouped data to estimate poverty (as applied in Sala-i-Martin, 2006, QJE). Using Monte...
Evidence from the World
We revisit the dramatic failure of monetary models in explaining exchange rate movements. Using the information content from 98 countries, we find str...
This paper studies the behavior of China's exports from the mid-1980s through 2001. Extensive quarterly data on values and quantities of major export ...
What are the Consequences of China's WTO Entry for India's Trade?
Did real overvaluation contribute to the 1991 currency crisis in India? This paper seeks an answer by constructing the equilibrium real exchange rate,...
Rising inequality and widespread poverty, social unrest and polarization, gender and ethnic disparities, declining social mobility, economic fragility...
Capital flight may undermine economic growth and the effectiveness of debt relief and foreign aid. This paper is the first attempt to test whether uns...
Can the Bumblebee Keep Flying?
Sweden has long been viewed as epitomizing a particular approach to economic and social policy. To its advocates, the Swedish welfare state builds on ...
Ireland has had significant competitiveness gains in the 1990s on the basis of the standard manufacturing unit labor cost-based measure of the real ef...
Dated March 2000....
Although negative shocks have persistent effects on output on average, this article shows that macroeconomic policies can influence the speed of recov...