Stealing Money from the Crowd: Breeders' Cup 2014

📖 The Scoop

This is a short guide to contrarian betting on horses. It is written with the Breeders’ Cup in mind, but can be used for any horse race. Its purpose is not to tell you who or what to bet, but to give you tools to make smarter, more profitable decisions. It should be accessible to the beginner while still useful to the veteran horseplayer. The only prerequisites are a desire to move past the traditional, but non-winning, ways of approaching the races, and a willingness to approach the races differently. 

This guide, originated in contrarian investing principles—and with academic work on research methodology—was adapted to the particular challenges of pari-mutuel betting. It is primarily focused on finding the right horses to bet. 

It can be used without needing to purchase the past performances or even know how to read them. It also does not matter whether you have recently been following the races closely or not. 

Table of Contents:

Introduction 2

The Favorite/Longshot Bias 6

Deconstructing the Past Performances 12

Conclusion 17

Genre: Sports & Recreation / Horse Racing (fancy, right?)