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Exchange rate-based inflation stabilization (ERBS) policies are associated with a boom-recession cycle in economic activity and sustained real exchang...
Reducing transport sector emissions is an important pillar of the green transition. However, the transition to electric vehicles (EV) portends major c...
Persistently high inflation rates have led many to believe that inflation in Turkey has become "inertial," posing an obstacle to disinflation. We asse...
The Case of the Islamic Republic of Iran
This paper provides a brief overview of the evolution of exchange rate policy in the Islamic Republic of Iran from 1993 to 2002 and reviews the basic ...
Using data on syndicated loan issuances by emerging market firms, we find that an increase in the external debt of emerging market governments signifi...
Lessons and Legacies of the Global Financial Crisis
Latin Americaโs bold fiscal policy reaction to the global financial crisis was hailed as a sign that the region had finally overcome its procyclical...
Commodity prices have declined sharply over the past three years, and output growth has slowed considerably among countries that are net exporters of ...
U.S. monetary policy can remain extraordinarily accommodative only if longer-term inflation expectations stay well-anchored, including in response to ...
The recommended way of helping households during the ongoing European energy crisis is to allow price signals to operate freely while providing target...
What is the Role of Fiscal Expectations?
Is backward-looking behavior in pricing or imperfect credibility of stabilization efforts responsible for the failure of inflation rates to decline to...
This paper evaluates the bias of the least-squares-with-dummy-variables (LSDV) method in fiscal reaction function estimations. A growing number of stu...
The Turkish Case, 1989-97
July 1999 Between 1989-97, large private capital flows to Turkey contributed to economic growth. Yet chronic and high fiscal deficits - coupled with a...
Uptick or Renaissance?
The notable rebound of U.S. manufacturing activity following the Great Recession has raised the question of whether the sector might be experiencing a...
This paper examines the performance of World Economic Outlook (WEO) growth forecasts for 2004-17. Short-term real GDP growth forecasts over that perio...
The Open Economy Case
This paper develops a model of inflation inertia based on optimizing forward looking staggered price setting in a small open economy. Unlike in curren...
This study examines money demand and inflation dynamics in the Islamic Republic of Iran using quarterly data for the period 1990/91-2001/02 and tests ...
This paper develops a theory of inflation inertia based on forward looking staggered price setting in the nontradable goods sector of a small open eco...
Latin America's bold fiscal policy reaction to the global financial crisis was hailed as a sign that the region had finally overcome its procyclical f...
This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upsi...
Turkey, 1989-97
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We show that fiscal policies reflecting a primary balance response to higher debt in line with historic experience would significantly increase the li...
Between 1989-97, large private capital flows to Turkey contributed to economic growth. Yet chronic and high fiscal deficits - coupled with an inconsis...